Comprehensive Indonesia Stock Market and Economic Analysis 2025
In-Depth Financial Research Report up to April 20, 2025
Recent Market and Economic News
The Indonesian stock market, tracked by the IDX Composite (IHSG), experienced significant volatility in Q1 and early Q2 2025, driven by domestic policy uncertainties, global trade tensions, and macroeconomic challenges. Below is a detailed timeline of key developments:
- April 7, 2025 - IHSG Plummets: Post-Lebaran, IHSG dropped 9.19% to 5,912, hitting a near four-year low, due to investor concerns over fiscal policies and global tariff threats. [](https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:454700:0-indonesia-stocks-surge-from-near-4-year-low/)
- April 9-10, 2025 - IHSG Rebound: IHSG surged 5.0% to 6,271 on April 10, following a Wall Street rally after President Trump announced a 90-day tariff suspension for most countries (except China). [](https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:454700:0-indonesia-stocks-surge-from-near-4-year-low/)[](https://finance.detik.com/bursa-dan-valas/d-7862961/ihsg-melesat-berakhir-di-level-6-254)
- April 14-17, 2025 - IHSG Recovery: IHSG gained 2.81% over the week, closing at 6,438.27 on April 17, driven by blue-chip banking stocks like BBRI and BMRI, despite a short trading week due to Good Friday. [](https://insight.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-naik-28-pekan-ini-saham-bmri-dan-bbni-memimpin-top-laggards)[](https://www.idxchannel.com/market-news/ihsg-berpotensi-bergerak-terbatas-pantau-saham-bbni-hrta)
- Foreign Outflows: Foreign investors withdrew Rp26.9 trillion from Indonesian equities by March 17, 2025, with net sells of Rp5.3 trillion in the week of April 8-11, targeting stocks like BBNI (Rp136.7 billion) and BMRI (Rp127.6 billion). [](https://news.detik.com/video/250417129/ihsg-menguat-38-poin-jelang-jumat-agung)[](https://www.idxchannel.com/market-news/ihsg-berpotensi-bergerak-terbatas-pantau-saham-bbni-hrta)
- Economic Indicators: February 2025 saw deflation of 0.48% (mtm) and 0.09% (yoy), signaling weak consumer demand. Car sales dropped in Q1 2025, impacting automotive stocks. [](https://insight.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-naik-28-pekan-ini-saham-bmri-dan-bbni-memimpin-top-laggards)
- Fiscal Policy Concerns: The $28 billion free nutritious meal program (MBG) and unclear Danantara regulations raised fiscal deficit fears, contributing to market volatility.
- Dividend Distributions: Banking and energy sectors led dividend payouts, with BBRI distributing Rp48.1 trillion and ADRO Rp54.4 trillion for 2024, boosting investor interest in defensive stocks. [](https://investor.id/market/394416/saham-bbri-saat-ex-dividen/2)
- Delisting Plans: BEI announced the delisting of eight companies by July 21, 2025, due to PKPU (debt restructuring) issues, affecting investor confidence in small-cap stocks.
- Trade Negotiations: Indonesia’s negotiations with the US to mitigate reciprocal tariffs provided a positive sentiment, supporting IHSG’s recovery in mid-April. [](https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/908005/ihsg-ditutup-menguat-di-tengah-pasar-wait-and-see-negosiasi-ri-as)[](https://katadata.co.id/finansial/bursa/67fc4fa8b72a2/ihsg-diramal-menguat-saham-tlkm-goto-bbni-hingga-antm-jadi-rekomendasi)
Financial Scenarios for 2025
The following five scenarios outline potential trajectories for Indonesia’s stock market and economy in 2025, based on domestic policies, global conditions, and investor sentiment. Each scenario includes projections for IHSG, rupiah, GDP growth, and sector impacts.
Super Optimistic: Robust Policy Reforms and Global Boom
Assumptions: Government implements sweeping fiscal reforms, resolving MBG and Danantara concerns. Global trade flourishes with no US tariffs. Rupiah strengthens to 14,500/USD, and GDP grows 6.5%. IHSG surges to 8,000 by Q4 2025.
Market Impact: Record foreign inflows (Rp50 trillion), high trading volumes, and a rally in growth stocks. Market cap reaches Rp12,000 trillion.
| Sector | Emitters Benefiting | Emitters at Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Banking | BBRI, BBCA, BMRI, BBNI | Small-cap banks (e.g., BJTM, BGTG) |
| Energy | ADRO, PTBA, PGAS, BYAN | Smaller coal exporters |
| Technology | BUKA, GOTO, EMTK | Unprofitable tech startups |
| Consumer Goods | UNVR, ICBP, MYOR, INDF | Luxury retail |
Optimistic: Policy Stabilization and Global Recovery
Assumptions: Government clarifies MBG and Danantara, reducing deficit fears. US tariffs moderated to 10%. Rupiah at 15,000/USD, GDP growth at 5.5%. IHSG reaches 7,200 by Q3 2025.
Market Impact: Foreign inflows of Rp30 trillion, focus on blue-chip and growth stocks. Market cap at Rp11,500 trillion.
| Sector | Emitters Benefiting | Emitters at Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Banking | BBRI, BBCA, BMRI | Regional banks |
| Energy | ADRO, PTBA | BUMI (coal price volatility) |
| Technology | BUKA, GOTO | Small-cap tech |
| Consumer Goods | UNVR, ICBP | Retail chains |
Baseline: Gradual Recovery with Volatility
Assumptions: Moderate policy adjustments, partial global recovery. US tariffs at 15%. Rupiah at 15,800/USD, GDP growth at 4.8%. IHSG fluctuates between 6,200–6,800.
Market Impact: Net foreign outflows stabilize at Rp10 trillion. Dividend stocks outperform. Market cap at Rp11,200 trillion.
| Sector | Emitters Benefiting | Emitters at Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Banking | BBRI, BBCA | Smaller BUMN banks |
| Energy | PTBA, PGAS | BUMI |
| Technology | BUKA | GOTO |
| Consumer Goods | ICBP, UNVR | Retail chains |
Pessimistic: Fiscal Strain and Global Slowdown
Assumptions: MBG and Danantara costs widen fiscal deficit. US imposes 25% tariffs. Rupiah weakens to 16,500/USD, GDP growth at 3.5%. IHSG drops to 5,500.
Market Impact: Foreign outflows of Rp40 trillion, trading halts, and a shift to defensive assets. Market cap falls to Rp10,500 trillion.
| Sector | Emitters Benefiting | Emitters at Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Banking | BBCA | BMRI, BBNI |
| Energy | PGAS | ADRO, BYAN |
| Technology | None | BUKA, GOTO |
| Consumer Goods | ICBP | UNVR |
Severe Downturn: Economic Crisis and Global Recession
Assumptions: Fiscal collapse due to unsustainable MBG costs. US tariffs at 40%, triggering a global recession. Rupiah crashes to 18,000/USD, GDP contracts by 1%. IHSG plummets to 4,500.
Market Impact: Foreign outflows exceed Rp60 trillion, widespread panic selling, and market cap drops to Rp9,000 trillion.
| Sector | Emitters Benefiting | Emitters at Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Banking | None | BBRI, BBCA, BMRI, BBNI |
| Energy | None | ADRO, PTBA, PGAS |
| Technology | None | BUKA, GOTO, EMTK |
| Consumer Goods | ICBP | UNVR, MYOR, INDF |
Emitter Analysis
The following table analyzes 50 key emitters across 10 sectors, with performance metrics (YTD returns, dividend yields, P/E ratios) and scenario-based impacts. Use the search bar and filters to explore.
| Code | Company | Sector | YTD Return (%) | Dividend Yield (%) | P/E Ratio | Super Optimistic | Optimistic | Baseline | Pessimistic | Severe Downturn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBRI | Bank Rakyat Indonesia | Banking | 4.68 | 8.5 | 12.5 | Strong | Strong | Stable | Weak | At Risk |
| BBCA | Bank Central Asia | Banking | -1.17 | 4.2 | 15.8 | Strong | Strong | Stable | Stable | Weak |
| ADRO | Adaro Energy | Energy | -6.5 | 7.8 | 8.2 | Strong | Stable | Weak | At Risk | At Risk |
| BUKA | Bukalapak | Technology | -15.2 | 0 | N/A | Strong | Stable | Stable | At Risk | At Risk |
| UNVR | Unilever Indonesia | Consumer Goods | -3.5 | 5.1 | 18.4 | Strong | Stable | Stable | Weak | At Risk |
| BMRI | Bank Mandiri | Banking | 0.21 | 6.8 | 13.2 | Strong | Strong | Stable | Weak | At Risk |
| BBNI | Bank Negara Indonesia | Banking | -0.7 | 8.0 | 11.9 | Strong | Stable | Stable | Weak | At Risk |
| PTBA | Bukit Asam | Energy | -4.2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | Strong | Stable | Stable | Weak | At Risk |
| PGAS | Perusahaan Gas Negara | Energy | 2.3 | 4.8 | 10.5 | Stable | Stable | Stable | Stable | Weak |
| ICBP | Indofood CBP | Consumer Goods | 1.8 | 3.9 | 16.7 | Strong | Stable | Stable | Stable | Stable |
Visualizations
Explore interactive charts to understand IHSG trends, sector performance, emitter comparisons, and market dynamics.